Scranton, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

376
FXUS61 KBGM 271852
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
252 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers move through the northern portion of the region this
afternoon, otherwise mainly dry elsewhere. Additional showers are
possible this evening and overnight. Scattered strong
thunderstorms and heavy rain, are expected on Saturday before
conditions improve on Sunday. Seasonably warmer temperatures
will return through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
330 PM Update...

The region is placed southwest of a stationary front keeping
conditions cool and stable. As the front pushes further east it
brings moisture into the northern portion of our region kicking off
showers. Otherwise it should remain relatively quiet this
afternoon elsewhere. Temperatures remain cool, blended in NBM
10th percentile to get closer to observations. The stationary
front continues to progresses east with additional isolated to
scattered showers expected overnight. Main focus looks to be
across the western and northern portions of the CWA. Overnight
lows range in the upper 50s over our eastern counties and upper
60s over our western counties.

A warm front develops west of our region by Saturday morning and
progresses east along side a low pressure system located in Canada.
This could bring some initial spotty showers in the morning but the
main round of showers will move through in the afternoon as the cold
front follows. There is potential for severe weather and flash
flooding as parameters are looking somewhat favorable. PWAT values
range up to 1.7 in, with a warm cloud layer depth ranging 11,000 to
13,000 feet. Any convective storms that train or bring multiple
rounds of showers over the same locations has the potential to
produce flash flooding. WPC has placed our region in a marginal risk
for the excessive rainfall.

Temperatures will rise into the low to mid 80s which will help
support instability. There is also some potential for clearing to
occur late morning into early afternoon, which could help set the
stage for how storms develop. As of now model guidance has CAPE
values up to 1,500 J/Kg with approximately 30 knots of shear.
Soundings also support stronger winds mixing down to the surface,
therefore damaging winds may be possible with any strong to severe
storm that develops. Instability will be focused mainly east of I-
81. SPC has our region in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms
with wind being our main threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will be in place across the region Sunday. This
should result in a rare sunny portion of the weekend for the
region. Temperatures will rise fairly quickly given the sunshine
with most locations getting to around 80. With light winds and
slightly increased humidity Sunday night some patchy fog can not
be ruled out. Our main highlight still looks to be Monday as
modeled 925mb temperatures rise to around 25C in the afternoon
yielding highs near 90 for most of the region. Humidity will be
on the rise as well. However, inverted V soundings may allow
for some slight mixing at peak heating lowering dewpoints
slightly. Portions of central New York look to get close to a 95
degree heat index. Overall, looks like another hot day but not
as extreme as last week. While moisture and instability look
sufficient Monday afternoon a lack of lift is present keeping
any thunderstorm coverage to isolated at best.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold frontal boundary looks to move through the area Tuesday.
It will be interesting to see if the focus for shower and
thunderstorm development Monday night and Tuesday will focus
along the front or the trough axis in advance. Either way the
coverage of showers and thunderstorms should increase. PW
values are still modeled around 1.5 inches with tall skinny CAPE
profiles which indicate heavy downpours will be possible. A few
occurrences of urban or flash flooding can not ruled out.
Overall, a questionable setup for any strong to severe
thunderstorms based on timing. Also, lapse rates look to be
fairly poor with marginal CAPE and 0-6km bulk shear. Tuesday
looks to start of muggy near 70 with highs still in the 80`s.

High pressure looks to nose in for the middle of the week into
the 4th of July. Right now we look to be mainly dry with only a
few ensemble members showing rain chances at this time. A slight
cooling trend in temperatures should occur but still 60`s for
lows and highs just getting over 80 for most of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A stationary front will remain to the southwest of the region
today. Layered ceilings will persist in mainly MVFR-Fuel Alt
configuration this afternoon. KSYR-KRME-KITH may reach SCT-BKN
VFR early this afternoon. Weak shower activity should be mainly
inbetween airports today, but can`t completely rule out a stray
shower or two but stronger convection should hold off until
Saturday.

Showers and thunderstorms will occur tomorrow afternoon as a
cold front pushes through the region. Confidence on exact timing
is not clear, therefore only mentioned showers at the tail end
of the period, thunderstorm potential will be reassessed.

E-SE winds with gusts up to about 20 knots expected this afternoon
to early evening, then diminishing tonight at sheltered
airports.

Outlook...

Saturday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms with associated
restrictions.

Sunday into Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesdsay...Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible along
with associated restrictions.

Wednesday...VFR conditions possible as high pressure builds.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...ES/JAB